Actually the problem starts way back. I mean way back. For the sake of argument, and since it is my blog...I can pretty much say what I want. Nothing I say will bring down the (stock) market or appreciates the Naira (currency) anyway...But the problem begins when the fuel price in international market simply...drop.
The fuel price has been hanging around the region of USD100 since 2010. Higher consumption of the black gold around the globe and high demand in China, coupled with uncertainty in some oil producing countries like Iran and Libya (both are OPEC members) pushes the prices. Production can't keep up, so the price soar...a case of supply and demand.
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| note the Demand and Supply line (source: Int. Energy Agency) |
Fast forward to 2014, the demand became lax and supply overtook. Unused oil was being stockpiled for later use. Supply outstrip demand, the price went down.
For an oil producing country, this is never good. The revenue drops, but you can maybe..maybe (since I am a layman of the lowest order, indeed) increase the price of fuel within the country to balance it out, which is never popular and I dont think any government would do it (or it did happen, anyway).
One thing leads to another, the economy weakens and the currency devalued. We arrived in January 2015, the exchange rate was USD1 to N185 and in March onwards it was USD1 to N205 or higher. Since the oil price is heading south, what about the fuel that is bought at the pump station? It went down too...but not low enough to the people's liking. It went from N97 to N87 per litre for PMS (?)..its actually Premium Motor Spirit (petrol)..hahahahaha
The election and postponement of it causes much trouble to the economy. I take it as part of the usual things that would happen during the uncertainty of things...(will the government of the day survives or replace with a new one..etc etc)..all these, put the strain on the already troubled economy. For a nation that is blessed with oil (2million barrels a day) only refines 100,000barrels/day and the rest is imported and some were stolen..yes, stolen. I did ask my friends how much? They only say...a lot and it was professionally done. I can only imagine.
Then the unthinkable happened in late April. Fuel supply somehow diminished at the petrol station.
The election and postponement of it causes much trouble to the economy. I take it as part of the usual things that would happen during the uncertainty of things...(will the government of the day survives or replace with a new one..etc etc)..all these, put the strain on the already troubled economy. For a nation that is blessed with oil (2million barrels a day) only refines 100,000barrels/day and the rest is imported and some were stolen..yes, stolen. I did ask my friends how much? They only say...a lot and it was professionally done. I can only imagine.
Then the unthinkable happened in late April. Fuel supply somehow diminished at the petrol station.
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| statement from MOMAN in Guardian newspaper (Major Oil Marketers Assoc. of Nigeria) |
The marketers said they were owed money by the outgoing government (which was still in power at that time). No money, no honey baby. So to pressure the government, they stopped delivering fuel around the country. The effect was greatly felt. For a country that ran on gen set (generator), getting fuel to power the set at home is a challenge. The small generator set uses petrol instead of diesel. With the fuel scarcity, no power for a/c, for tv, lights, washing machine and fridge..maybe. I understand, with the gen set running you have to choose which appliance to use (not enough power for all appliances running at the same time). Still not a solution, but better to have some than not having anything at all.
The best was from Madam's colleague in up north. She's without electricity for weeks now, and eggs in the fridge popped out chicks! A joke actually, but a serious one, nonetheless. The epileptic state of the current electricity supply and the fuel scarcity doubles the impact. In mass media, government and fuel marketers, trade blows. Each accusing one another of an ulterior motive behind the problem. Government accused the marketers for not being patriotic and too profit oriented while the marketers, themselves running a business have bills to pay and being owed many billions of Naira which the government promised to settle within the agreed stipulated time.
In the meantime, people suffer. As if life is not hard enough, took turns to miserable. With the fuel in stock became lower and lower, price began to soar. At the petrol station, instead of lined up with cars; now jerry can take its place (refer to the press cutting below). Housing estates with central generator began its own fuel conserving exercise...no electricity for 4 hours a day, at least. Banks informed their clients that they are closing very much earlier...Radio station stop broadcasting and the remaining few, continued to soldier on until the last drop. MTN Nigeria, the mobile service provider for at least 50million users mentioned on CNBC that cell phone service will start to deteriorate in 24hours if they don't get diesel soon.
As if like an ailing man, one by one the body began its shutdown...on the way meeting the maker. Airports can't refuel the foreign carriers and flight has to be diverted to another country to refuel before continuing its flight to the intended destination. Local flights were cancelled and now the international media paid attention to the problem. The whole world knows about it and we in Nigeria were thinking what else could happen next.
Fuel price from N87/litre (RM 1.60 / USD 0.43) rose to N100 and all the way to N400 (RM 7.40 / USD 2.00). Fuel sold by the roadside (illegally of course) sold up to N1,200/litre! (RM 22.20 / USD 6.00) I heard once in the radio, during a morning talk show.
Public transportation fare skyrocketed too. All went up double from the usual. The okadas (motorbike taxi?) fare from N100 went up to between N150 to N200 (the only one I can confirm). My friend, Joseph spends about N1,700 a day on public transportation fare to commute to and fro. It went up drastically he said. A family man himself, he leaves home around 5am and goes back at 7pm. With the crazy go-slow (traffic jam) along the 3rd Mainland Bridge, I wonder what time he arrives home every night. Little by little, you can observe what happens when there's no fuel, very few cars on the road. When there's few car, the street vendor could hardly make a living...poor them.
We communicated among the Malaysian community. Saifuddeen's driver queued for.... I think it was 5 to 7 hours just to get fuel for the car. It was late at night. Amaludin and Shatish bought extra but at a very costly price. Then there's the issue of storing them. The apartment management doesn't allow the fuel to be stored at home or even at the underground parking lot. Well, it was problematic.
We did car pooled for the children to go to school but I guess the problem really got out off hand when the school BOD decided to end the semester earlier than expected. Spoke to the faculty staffs and got to know they don't have access to fuel for 4 days already...full day blackout. No fuel means no electricity. No electricity means no lifts and the water pump wouldn't be able to pump water to the holding tank at the top of the apartment building. The school only have reserve for a few more days only.
Over in Abuja..APC (All Progressive Congress) accused the President from PDP of deliberately sabotaging the incoming APC-led government. The President acknowledged the situation but counted that peace and stability remained so far. He confessed the incoming government would need prayer to overcome the problems it would inherit from his administration.
On the 25th, Capital Oil breaks rank and releases 13million litres of fuel. Promised to release another 70 million litres but the rest didn't budge. By now, power supply has been all time low (below 1,000MW for the whole country!). Never been this bad, said my friend. Last time was in the 90's.
Then there was the strike by the Petroleum Tanker Drivers, NUPENG (National Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas Workers) and PENGASSAN (Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria)..yes they do have lots of association and union each overlapping and sidestepping each other.. it can be confusing...don't worry...it only makes sense to the locals. Each has their dispute. On payment, on oil block etc etc... To me, it was a time of confusion. But 2 days later (27th, I think) there seemed to be some slight improvement. The problem is still not solved, but you could see vehicles moving about. The usual go slow at various road...the street vendors go about their business. The long queue at the petrol station is still here, but maybe it took them lesser time to get their fuel.
All eyes on the 29th May for Democracy Day in Nigeria, especially in Abuja where the new President will be sworn in. So does in all the states, out with the old...and enter the new Govern0r and his deputy. Hope for a better Nigeria has always been there. Hope is a powerful thing. Because hope is, Hold On, Pain Ends.
The best was from Madam's colleague in up north. She's without electricity for weeks now, and eggs in the fridge popped out chicks! A joke actually, but a serious one, nonetheless. The epileptic state of the current electricity supply and the fuel scarcity doubles the impact. In mass media, government and fuel marketers, trade blows. Each accusing one another of an ulterior motive behind the problem. Government accused the marketers for not being patriotic and too profit oriented while the marketers, themselves running a business have bills to pay and being owed many billions of Naira which the government promised to settle within the agreed stipulated time.
In the meantime, people suffer. As if life is not hard enough, took turns to miserable. With the fuel in stock became lower and lower, price began to soar. At the petrol station, instead of lined up with cars; now jerry can take its place (refer to the press cutting below). Housing estates with central generator began its own fuel conserving exercise...no electricity for 4 hours a day, at least. Banks informed their clients that they are closing very much earlier...Radio station stop broadcasting and the remaining few, continued to soldier on until the last drop. MTN Nigeria, the mobile service provider for at least 50million users mentioned on CNBC that cell phone service will start to deteriorate in 24hours if they don't get diesel soon.
As if like an ailing man, one by one the body began its shutdown...on the way meeting the maker. Airports can't refuel the foreign carriers and flight has to be diverted to another country to refuel before continuing its flight to the intended destination. Local flights were cancelled and now the international media paid attention to the problem. The whole world knows about it and we in Nigeria were thinking what else could happen next.
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| please read... |
Public transportation fare skyrocketed too. All went up double from the usual. The okadas (motorbike taxi?) fare from N100 went up to between N150 to N200 (the only one I can confirm). My friend, Joseph spends about N1,700 a day on public transportation fare to commute to and fro. It went up drastically he said. A family man himself, he leaves home around 5am and goes back at 7pm. With the crazy go-slow (traffic jam) along the 3rd Mainland Bridge, I wonder what time he arrives home every night. Little by little, you can observe what happens when there's no fuel, very few cars on the road. When there's few car, the street vendor could hardly make a living...poor them.
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| traffic on the Falomo bridge |
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| traffic along the Ozumba Mbadiwe road. Usually there will be traffic around here..not this time |
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| car parked along the road to for the driver to get fuel |
We did car pooled for the children to go to school but I guess the problem really got out off hand when the school BOD decided to end the semester earlier than expected. Spoke to the faculty staffs and got to know they don't have access to fuel for 4 days already...full day blackout. No fuel means no electricity. No electricity means no lifts and the water pump wouldn't be able to pump water to the holding tank at the top of the apartment building. The school only have reserve for a few more days only.
Over in Abuja..APC (All Progressive Congress) accused the President from PDP of deliberately sabotaging the incoming APC-led government. The President acknowledged the situation but counted that peace and stability remained so far. He confessed the incoming government would need prayer to overcome the problems it would inherit from his administration.
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| somewhere in Ikeja (I think) |
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| jerry cans only |
Then there was the strike by the Petroleum Tanker Drivers, NUPENG (National Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas Workers) and PENGASSAN (Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria)..yes they do have lots of association and union each overlapping and sidestepping each other.. it can be confusing...don't worry...it only makes sense to the locals. Each has their dispute. On payment, on oil block etc etc... To me, it was a time of confusion. But 2 days later (27th, I think) there seemed to be some slight improvement. The problem is still not solved, but you could see vehicles moving about. The usual go slow at various road...the street vendors go about their business. The long queue at the petrol station is still here, but maybe it took them lesser time to get their fuel.
All eyes on the 29th May for Democracy Day in Nigeria, especially in Abuja where the new President will be sworn in. So does in all the states, out with the old...and enter the new Govern0r and his deputy. Hope for a better Nigeria has always been there. Hope is a powerful thing. Because hope is, Hold On, Pain Ends.
p/s: a statement from the MOF Minister...everyone has a say here in Nigeria. It was in the Vanguard newspaper.
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